Fantasy Football 2006; Rookie Report; sorry for the delay with the Rook article, expect an IDP (individual defensive player) report this week as well as a depth chart update
Rookies can Rule; but be wary of drafting them high; you'll face a silent death
So you're trying to predict what these young cats will do you for your team; how will they produce? How will they adapt to the language and complicated schemes of the league? How will they handle even more pussy and even more money than college life? All reasonable questions to pose of an NFL freshman. These cats have to acclimate on the fly, with the advent of common rookie training camp holdouts (Benson, Rivers, Winslow to name a few) and the wild amount of coaching changes the transition to the pro ranks can be even harder than expected.
Oh what NFL rookies spend their money on; this is LenDale's new promotional whip
That being said there is still definite fantasy value in rookies, only it takes some research to tell which ones are likely to produce. If you do some research and get some luck to go along with it, you can really benifit from a rooks numbers. It’s not just top 10 picks (Ronnie and Caddy for example) that can offer immediate fantasy impact, you should look deep into the draft (ie; Dom Davis or Anquan) and determine which players figure to play a large role in their teams’ offense. In order to understand what positions are likely to produce as rooks I went through the last 9 drafts (’98-06) to see how each position fared in their rookie seasons. The results were very telling; Running backs are the only trusted players.
It’s clear who produces early and often; every single draft (since ’98) has produced at least one highly productive fantasy running back. From Fred Taylor in 98 to Kevin and Julius Jones in '04 rookie backs can contribute as starters to your fantasy team. Some drafts have had multiple stud backs; just look at last season; Caddy, Ronnie even Frank Gore had value in the fantasy playoff weeks.
This is the Saints new dance team (Katrina wiped out the whore houses)
In each case that a back has been productive the starting position on their team was open or up for competition, so take the context of the rookie's team into consideration. What I mean by this is that you need to consider the team’s depth chart before you jump on a rookie; Reggie Bush is a great potential pick but shares the backfield with a workhorse, where as Joseph Addai has only a third down back in his way. Not to say that you should draft Addai before Bush, just be aware that potential requires touches and opportunity to be realized, and I'd rather have a player in a later round that has a real opportunity to start. Basically Addai could provide your team much better value taking him as your third or 4th back versus Bush as your #1 or 2 back. Larry Johnson waited two and a half seasons to get his due, while in that same draft ('03) Dom Davis put up a 1000 yards 8 TDs and 50 catches immediately. Look at the scenario a player enters, and take that into account when projecting their numbers.
Cool little fucker even put his beer down
Trust a rookie RB before any other position; it is the single most productive rookie position in football on either side of the ball. It requires the least amount of acclimation; besides the blocking responsibilities, the transition from college to the pros is the least dramatic for a back. Their role stays relatively similar to their "amateur" careers; run the ball downfield and make motherfuckers miss. There is also much less depth at RB in fantasy than TE and WR, adding value to the RB position.
Receivers, tight ends and especially QBs have a new set of responsibilities; precise routes, complex blocking schemes and a whole new football language master (more a QBs role). It's generally obvious to stay away from any rookie QB, as the learning curve is so steep. There are some rooks at WR and TE to consider each year, but you need to be wary of taking these positions very high; it's rare that a rookie WR has real fantasy value in year one. For every Anquan, Clayton or Moss there are ten Troy Williamsons, Reggie Williams or Charles Rogers ready to terd up your fantasy squad. Even rarer is a rookie TE that produces; crazy ass ruffie spokesman Shockey's 900 rookie yards or Miller’s 6 TDs were an anomaly at the position. Tony G, Gates, Heap, Witten and basically every other top fantasy TE was irrelevant in their rookie campaigns. With that in mind this year’s crop boasts several TE’s that figure to start for their respective teams, hopefully a few of them contribute this season, but don’t bank on it.
Drafting a rookie can be a real kick in the sack
All things considered, every player is different as is every team scenario; just use the history of rookie production as a guide to realistically rate the rookie player. Let some jerk store in your league draft Santonio Holmes in the middle rounds while you take a steady David Givens. Don't expect too much out of these cats, only a handful will prove draft worthy, so temper your expectations. The number one question to ask about a rookie is what his team expects from them; most rookies are drafted with the idea that they'll contribute as a back up and earn a starting role over the course of their first few seasons. So pay attention to the training camp reports and the pre season numbers, they'll atleast give you an idea of what their team's expect from them. Here is a ranking of the top fantasy rookies for 2006;
He's finally #1; be careful not to draft him too high though
1. Reggie Bush RB NO; his potential alone deserves this ranking. Dude broke kid’s ankles in “school” and has shined in the team’s recent mini camps. Even though he has a workhorse in Deuce to share with, his potent skill set allows the Saints to have both backs on the field in most formations. He will prove to be more of a receiver than a true running back this season. His value is immediate in point per reception leagues.
The only thing to watch out for is inconsistent production. He will score, and have some big plays. He will get high reception totals, but be wary of relying on him week to week. Deuce will still get 20+ carries in the game plan, with Bush figuring to get 12-15 touches in most weeks. If Deuce were to have a setback with his knee or another injury Reggie could prove to be a top 10 back immediately. Draft him in the 3rd if you have the balls; just know that you'll be leaving veteran starters like Dillon and Droughns on the board to do so.
Addai could very well be the safest rookie of them all
2. Jospeh Addai RB Indy; The biggest transition for a rookie RB is picking up on the exotic NFL blitzes. Edge is one of the leagues best pass protection backs in the league, maybe the best. He set the standard for what the Colts expect out of their starting back. Whoever can protect Peyton the best will prove to be the starter in the dome. The Colts want a true 3 down back. For this reason I have Addai ranked very high on my draft board. His only competition for the touches is Dominic Rhodes; a solid third down back that lacks the skill set to be a true work horse back. Addai was excellent in pass protection at LSU and proved to be an adept receiver as well. He could have the starting job by training camp so keep an eye on the Indy camp. He could easily prove to be the most productive rookie of the class.
DeAngelo could produce dope numbers if/when Foster goes down
3. DeAngelo Williams RB Carolina; Dude has been favorably compared to Terrell Davis and LT2. Not bad company at all. He put up absolutely crazy numbers at Memphis, and is in a good situation to produce in Carolina. Foster is the clear starter having been given a new deal and the keys to the running game. But you don’t draft a 1st round running back unless you plan to utilize him often. Williams was a steal at 27 (much like LJ) and will be the starter for the cats sooner than later. It helps that Foster has football aids and can’t stay on the field past halftime (much like Chris Brown). He runs upright and exposes himself to injury. Draft Williams in the 6th or so as you’re third back and you may reap the benefits of another Foster disaster.
Don't be surprised if dude is the starter by mid season
4. LenDale White RB Tenn; Fat, stoned, lazy. Fuck it I’ll still draft him, they said the same shit about Moss minus the fat part and how did his career work out? I ranked him this high because of his scenario; Chris Brown makes Foster look like Emmit, he’s brittle like my Grandmoms and Travis Henry is in court almost as much as Chris Henry. If Brown goes down expect White to be a stud. He has the size to be a goaline back immediately and may put up 8 TDs even without a Brown injury. I would draft him pretty high, around the 7th or so ahead of guys like Mewelde Moore and Duckett.
5. Laurence Maroney RB NE; I trust that Corey Dillon will be more safe and productive than either Deuce or Foster, so I can’t say for certain that Maroney will see the field a ton in his rookie campaign. Dillon had an “awful” year in ’05 based on his draft position but still put up 12TDs in 12 games, so it’s all relative what you think is disappointing.
Though Dillon does have crazy miles on his legs, literally. And you must consider that Larry was drafted very high (22) for a New England skill position, so they may have immediate plans for him. But with Patrick Pass, Faulk and Merryl Hodge impersonator Heath Evans in tow there is some legit traffic in the depth chart for Maroney to overcome. That being said I still see a strong value in this rook; if Dillon goes down they’d likely look to Maroney to carry the load. Draft him in the later rounds and your 3rd or 4th back and definitely grab him if you draft Corey.
V.Davis is a beast, but may suffer from a shakey QB
6. Vernon Davis TE SF ; He is the most athletic TE prospect ever. Only Gates and Tony rival his skills. Too fucking bad he has Alex Smith as his QB. He will put up some solid TE numbers this year, but is limited by the quality of his offense. Eventually he’ll be a top 3 or even #1 fantasy option at TE, but temper this year’s numbers. With Eric Johnson back and Smith running around with his head cut off I wouldn’t draft him as my #1 TE. He could produce like one, but there are too many questions in the Bay to draft a Niner as a starter. Get him in the late rounds (8-10) and hope he becomes great trade bait.
7. Chad Jackson WR NE; Every rookie is brilliant in mini camp, everyone shines and wows. No team is gonna tell you otherwise. All of the bullshit posturing may actually be true of Chad, he seemingly secured a starting position already. Just like Maroney he was drafted very high for a skill player by Billy and the gang. He replaces Given’s role as the solid possession valve for Brady. Experts will tell you that the Pats spread the ball too much to bank on him, but I see him getting something in the neighborhood of 60 catches and 6 TDs. With potential for more. He is the most talented and athletic WR that this Pats regime has had yet. Draft him really late as a 4th or 5th fantasy wide out.
Lefty may look to Lewis in the endzone often
8. Marcedes Lewis TE Jax; He’s another basketball player turned successful TE. 6’7’’ with hops, he was a potent red zone weapon at UCLA scoring 17 TDs in his last two seasons. Imagine him and Matt Jones, who? Matt Jones leaping over 5’10’’ safeties for TDs over the years. Leftwhich hasn’t had a real TE in the league, and Del Rio has made it known that he plans to utilize Lewis in the redzone much like he was in college. I wouldn’t draft him too high, but he could easily match and even improve on Heath Miller type numbers. Look for him in the later rounds and draft him with confidence as a bye week/injury fill in.
Joey Klop; he may be the first Rams TE to have fantasy relevance
9. Joe Klopfenstein TE Rams; Quite possibly the best name to have on your team. Almost as cool as Cooley or Shockey (aka Shock-nuts). Big Klop was a stud TE in the Big 12 and has soft hands. He translates well into Linehan’s balanced offense (think McMichael). Bulger’s biggest problem has been holding the ball too long on most plays, since Martz designed such exotic timing routes it was tough to stay on his feet, leading to his numerous injuries. But Bulger is still a dope talent, with a strong and accurate arm. He needed a valve in the worst way and Klop will help him in that regard. Look for modest but useful production from him. A very late round pick would be worth a look.
Lil dude may be the deep threat Eli has needed
10. Sinorice Moss WR NYG; The Giants have lacked a true downfield threat for years now. Santana’s baby bro may change that. He has track star speed and sick angles, he’s 5’8’’ with shoes on and uses his size (lack of) to his advantage. He is a late round fantasy pick who could prove to put up some big games. The phasing out of Toomer on long yardage plays will progress throughout the season, so keep and eye on lil Moss and how he’s used in pre season ball.
Other Rookie considerations; these cats should probably go undrafted but may be worthy of a roster spot once training camp gives you more info on their status;
Jerious Norwood RB Atlanta; He is already competing for touches in the Atlanta backfield. The team would like to move Duckett for a pick and that would open the door for Norwood to raise his fantasy stock. If Dunn were to go down he would be the next in line, and he is clearly the team’s future back. Draft him late as either a handcuff to Dunn or as a 4th back.
Santonio Holmes WR Pitt; He was the top receiver taken in the draft, but in the Steeler offense it’s hard to imagine him getting much more than Randle El type numbers. Many people praise El’s array of skills and forget that he was barely usuable in fantasy putting up 35 catches and two total TDs last year. Holmes should evolve into a nice #2 for them over the next few years, but to expect consistent fantasy production in that run heavy offense is not wise.
Page 3; it's worth your time
Brian Calhoun RB Detroit; With fart heart Martz calling plays it seems to be a bad time to be a RB in Motown. Kevin Jones needs to prove his worth in his contract year, and the drafting of Calhoun sent notice to Jones that the team is prepared to move on without him. I wouldn’t draft Calhoun unless I placed a higher pick (4th round or so) on KJ as insurance. He is a patient back that allows plays to evolve, something Jones has problems with; he could make an impact late in the year if the team gives up on Jones as their feature back.
Greg Jennings WR GB; With the number two and three spots basically open in the Packer’s passing game Jennings could be a solid back up fantasy receiver in the mold of Antonio Chatman. Favre will likely drop back a lot again this year as the team will likely play from behind often. Driver needs a complimentary receiver and Jennings is a mature rookie in terms of route running and going across the middle. Be sure to check his status in the pre season to see where he stands on the depth chart.
Lenny Pope TE Cards; Dude is even bigger than Lewis at 6’8’’. But with only one full season as a college starter Pope is a project. He’s the NFL version of a Croation small forward; tons of potential but raw as fuck. The Cards have lacked a real tight end for some time and their offense is now capable of utilizing a solid redzone TE in their game plan. He may very well go undrafted in fantasy but check on his pre season numbers to gauge how ready he is to start in the pros.
Matt needs to up his numbers; these bitches are wack with the exception of the jawn on the right (what party has bitches walking around with merlot bottles anyway?)
Matt Leinart QB Cards; He really shouldn’t be drafted in non-keeper leagues but could get forced into the job if Warner really struggles or is injured. He would take over a potent offense and could provide help as an emergency fantasy starter or back up. He’s more than likely tabloid material rather than fantasy contributor.
Derek Hagan WR Fins; Chambers has yet to get help in the passing game outside of the inconsistent play of Randy Mc. Hagan slipped due to average measurables but was a beast at ASU, fucking tan white bitches and scoring TDs all over the Pac. Draft him late if at all but he could put up some nice reception numbers if Daunte comes back to full force.
Can you ever get too much Keeley?
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